Five weeks before Germany’s snap federal election, Friedrich Merz insisted that a weekend gathering of centre-right leaders in Berlin was not an early coronation. Not quite.
The “winter retreat” of leaders from the European Parliament’s European People’s Party (EPP) grouping was scheduled long before the February 23rd election was called – seven months early.
Given its comfortable poll lead, however, his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and other centre-right parties framed the 69-year-old chancellor hopeful as an important signal for a stronger Europe in uncertain times.
“There is no reason to look fearfully at Washington now,” said Mr Merz, with an eye on the Trump inauguration on Monday. “If we are determined, if we agree, we also have something to say. But if we are divided, no one will take us seriously.”
In a five-page communiqué, nine leaders and other EPP government heads said their core demands – cut red tape, fight illegal migration, promote security – were within reach given a rightward shift in European politics.
EPP chief Manfred Weber insisted that, three years after Angela Merkel’s departure, “large parts of Europe” are looking forward to a return of a CDU chancellor in Berlin.
He, too, preached self-confidence for Europe vis-a-vis a new Trump administration, noting that the EU’s 21 per cent of global growth was not far behind the US contribution of 22 per cent.
Underlining that self-confidence mantra was European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, in her first appearance since being hospitalised with pneumonia.
Government talks in Dublin meant Fine Gael was absent from the Berlin meeting, open only to EPP leaders or deputy leaders.
To tackle migration pressures, the leaders backed “return hubs outside the EU” as well as a “real European defence union complementary to Nato”.
One interesting detail of the gathering was the attendance of centre-right rulers from three countries that joined the EU 30 years ago – Austria, Sweden, Finland – whose hold on power depends on far-right populist parties.
Austrian acting chancellor Alexander Schallenberg’s People’s Party (ÖVP) failed to form a centrist coalition and is now on course to be junior partner, for the first time, to the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl. Unlike previous alliances as senior partner, the ÖVP is unlikely to be able to keep the FPÖ away from key EU portfolios in any new coalition.
In last year’s election campaign the FPÖ pushed for an EU of nations and peoples, not of institutions and integration, which it blamed for “forced multiculturalism, globalisation and mass immigration”.
“With Kickl in the chancellor’s chair for the first time, he cannot be fenced in or disciplined by the smaller partner,” said Thomas Hofer, a Vienna-based political analyst. “How a chancellor Kickl will behave in the European Council is a completely open question now.”
Since June 2023 Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo, another attendee in Berlin, has led a coalition of his conservative National Coalition Party (NCP) that includes the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration Finns Party. Rather than the NCP “domesticating” its populist government partner, many Finnish analysts suggest the opposite has happened.
“What has happened is the adaptation of neo-New Right agenda by the [NCP],” said Prof Emilia Palonen, political scientist at the University of Helsinki.
Prof Palonen says Finnish government policies, in particular measures to strengthen its 1,300km border with Russia, have been “selective in their adherence to European norms” – but enjoy widespread public backing.
“Still, this stance suits the Finns Party well,” she added, recalling the Finn’s previous departure from government a decade ago in protest at failure to prioritise security and migration measures. “It is inevitable that some backsliding may appear in at least some policy areas and ìt will be interesting to see how the EPP will react to it.”
The EPP has yet to respond in detail to the new reality facing a third Berlin attendee: Swedish conservative prime minister Ulf Kristersson, another EPP leader whose grip on power since 2022 has depended on populist backing – in his case the Sweden Democrats (SD), who remain in opposition.
In power the Kristersson government has tightened up migration-asylum policy and, pushed by populist MPs, has just unveiled a far-reaching reform of citizenship rules.
“Citizenship must be earned, not be handed out unconditionally,” said Sweden’s migration minister Johan Forssell last week on Instagram.
While centre-right Swedes praise the reforms as an overdue paradigm shift, centre-left leaders and analysts see a coarsening political rhetoric and a “race to the bottom” steered by SD leader Jimmie Åkesson. In 2023 he called for mosques in Sweden to be “confiscated or demolished”. Last year a Swedish television investigation revealed how the SD operates its own troll factory, attacking opposition and government politicians with violent language, memes, fake news and other social media stunts.
In Berlin on Saturday, EPP members insisted they were watching closely coalitions with populists and would step in to halt any attempt at undermining EU fundamentals such as asylum rights and the rule of law.
EPP officials deny their parties were acting as political midwives for mainstream populist rule in Europe. However, one seasoned EPP leader conceded that Herbert Kickl as Austria’s likely next chancellor represented a “new kind of challenge” for the group – and the wider EU.
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