Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned it is “five minutes to midnight” for Europe to achieve security and defence independence from the US.
On Monday Mr Merz promised swift coalition talks to form a new government after his centre-right Christian Democratic Union won Sunday’s federal election with 28.6 per cent of the vote. His preferred – and set to be only – partner is the centre-right Social Democratic Party, which lost nine points to finish on 16 per cent.
Together the CDU, its CSU Bavarian ally and the SPD have 328 seats in the Bundestag, eight more than a majority of 316.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished in second place with 20.8 per cent and 152 seats but, shunned by other parties, will be the largest opposition party.
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Mr Merz called the AfD surge a “really the last warning to the political parties of the democratic centre in Germany to find joint solutions” to pressing domestic problems.
He expressed repeated concern at recent remarks by US president Donald Trump that he would not defend Nato countries he deemed freeloaders.
This logic, Mr Merz said, meant alliance members heading to its summit in June wouldn’t know if they would “still be talking about Nato in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.
“It is clear that the Americans, at any case the Americans in this administration, do not care much about the fate of Europe,” said Mr Merz, a 69-year-old conservative and lifelong Atlanticist who has previously floated the idea of a new European defence alliance to supplement – or even replace – Nato.
The German politician spoke to leaders in Paris and London on Monday, reigniting speculation over pre-election remarks by Mr Merz that he would ask if “nuclear security from the UK and France could also apply to” Germany.
Even before taking office Mr Merz faces pressure to step up German military deliveries to Ukraine, including controversial cruise missiles blocked by the administration of chancellor Olaf Scholz.
These growing global tensions and expectations will compete with domestic priorities – on migration policy and a controversial cap on deficit spending – in upcoming German coalition talks.
On Monday, Mr Merz signalled he might convene the old Bundestag to amend the so-called debt brake, which limits the annual structural deficit to 0.35 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Doing so, while possibly excluding defence borrowing from the cap, would prevent the AfD and hard-left Linke uniting in the new parliament to prevent reform with a blocking minority.
Mr Merz said he had sent a “memorandum of understanding” to the outing SPD-led government, reminding it not to take any major foreign or domestic policy decisions without the agreement of the CDU/CSU in this transition phase.
As part of his reset of German foreign policy, Mr Merz said he had invited Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to visit Germany. He described the move as a challenge to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Mr Netanyahu for alleged war crimes in Gaza.
“I promised him we will find ways and means for him to visit Germany – and leave again – without him being arrested,” he said.
As preliminary talks began on a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, smaller parties excluded from the next Bundestag may challenge both the result and the reformed laws underpinning Sunday’s poll.
Leading the challenge is the left-conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which ended the election 13,400 votes short of entering parliament.
On Monday, Ms Wagenknecht said party lawyers were considering a challenge to the result, noting many of Germany’s 213,000 non-resident voters complained of not receiving ballot papers in time to vote.
