Hard-right opposition leader George Simion led an opinion poll published on Monday, five weeks before the first round of a repeat presidential election that could determine whether Romania remains on its pro-Western course.
The European Union and Nato member, which borders Ukraine, will repeat the two-round election on May 4th and 18th after the constitutional court voided the initial ballot in December following accusations of Russian meddling, which Moscow denied.
With the cancelled election’s far-right frontrunner, Calin Georgescu, banned from running again, ultranationalists have regrouped around Mr Simion, leader of the opposition Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), Romania’s second-largest party.
An opinion poll conducted by polling institute Verifield and commissioned by Nicusor Dan, one of the candidates, showed Mr Simion was on course to secure 35 per cent of votes in the first round, slightly higher than in earlier polls.
It showed Victor Ponta, a former leftist prime minister whose politics have since become more ultranationalist, would win 21.1 per cent of votes and that Bucharest mayor Mr Dan, running as an independent, would get 20.8 per cent.
The new poll put support for Mr Simion’s AUR at 31.7 per cent and showed the ruling Social Democrats trailing on 21.2 per cent. It surveyed 1,100 people between March 24th and 28th and had a margin of error of 2.95 per cent.
Mr Simion’s party has developed from a fringe anti-vaccination group during the Covid pandemic into the leading opposition force, appealing to the working-class diaspora and young voters and building on popular anger with mainstream politicians.
Mr Simion (38) has supported restoring Romania’s pre-second world War borders, which include areas now in Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine, and has been declared persona non grata in the latter two countries.
Mr Ponta (52) quit as prime minister in 2015 after a deadly nightclub fire led to big anti-corruption protests. He has said he backs what he calls “radical change” taking place in the United States and has courted voters with an ultranationalist leaning while backing Romania’s role in the EU and Nato.
Mr Dan (55) is a centrist who supports Romania’s EU and Nato membership and most current aid for Ukraine.
Romania’s president has a semi-executive role, which includes chairing the council that decides on military aid and defence spending, and can veto EU votes that require unanimity.
Mr Georgescu himself is under criminal investigation for his alleged links to fascist groups and attempting to subvert the constitutional order, which carry a sentence of more than 10 years in prison.
He has denied having benefited from any Russian help, although he declared he spent no money on last year’s campaign.
Mr Georgescu, the candidate who won the subsequently voided first-round election in December, is under criminal investigation for his alleged links to fascist groups and attempting to subvert the constitutional order, which carry a sentence of more than 10 years in prison.
He has denied receiving any Russian help in last year’s campaign.
After questioning Mr Georgescu for several hours on February 26th, prosecutors said they were formally investigating him on accusations of forming an anti-Semitic organisation, promoting war criminals and fascist organisations, and communicating false information.
Mr Georgescu in turn accused authorities of behaviour reminiscent of Romania’s communist past.
“The communist Bolshevik system is continuing its heinous abuse,” he said on his Facebook account. “They are looking to invent evidence to justify stealing the election and to do anything in their efforts to block a new candidacy from me.” − Reuters
