Binyamin Netanyahu is once again trying to balance the demands of centrist and far-right members of his government after a threat from his extremist allies to collapse the coalition if Israel moves forward with a new ceasefire plan for Gaza announced by US president Joe Biden.
In an unexpected broadcast from the White House on Friday night, Mr Biden urged Hamas to accept what he said was a new proposal from Israel for a three-phrase plan towards a permanent ceasefire in the eight-month war.
“Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says they want a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it. Hamas needs to take the deal,” he said.
But in remarks on Saturday, Mr Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, immediately undermined Mr Biden, reiterating that Israel seeks the complete destruction of the Palestinian militant group before it will agree to ending the war. Any deviation from that condition is a “non-starter”, he said.
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Hamas provisionally welcomed the president’s announcement, although it also said as recently as Thursday that it still views a full withdrawal of Israeli troops as a precondition to talks.
As expected, Mr Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners – the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir – immediately voiced opposition to the new truce plan when Shabbat ended on Saturday night, threatening to resign if it goes ahead.
Such a deal would be “foolhardy, constituting a victory for terrorism and a threat to Israel’s national security,” Mr Ben-Gvir, the head of the ultranationalist Jewish Power party, said on X.
An aide to the prime minister confirmed on Sunday that Israel had put the framework forward, but described it as “flawed” and in need of more work.
However, Mr Netanyahu is also under increasing pressure from his military and intelligence chiefs, as well as the centrist members of his war cabinet, to accept a ceasefire and hostage release deal. Benny Gantz, a leading rival who joined Mr Netanyahu’s emergency unity government after October 7th, has said he will resign if the prime minister does not commit to a “day after” plan for Gaza by June 8th.
Yair Lapid, Israel’s opposition leader, also urged Mr Netanyahu to agree to a hostage and ceasefire deal, saying his centrist Yesh Atid party would support it even if right-wing factions in the government rebelled – meaning a deal would be likely to pass in parliament.
“The government of Israel cannot ignore President Biden’s consequential speech. There is a deal on the table and it should be made,” he said on Saturday.
Mr Netanyahu, long plagued by corruption charges he denies, sees staying in office as his best chance of avoiding prosecution, as well as putting off investigations and hearings into the security failures that contributed to Hamas’s October 7th assault.
[ What will happen in Gaza when the war ends? No one seems to knowOpens in new window ]
During Saturday night’s now-weekly protest in Tel Aviv led by the families of hostages held by Hamas, thousands of people called on the government to act on the new proposal. A joint statement from ceasefire mediators the US, Egypt and Qatar said the three countries “jointly call on both Hamas and Israel to finalise the agreement … [to] bring immediate relief both to the longsuffering people of Gaza as well as the longsuffering hostages and their families”.
Despite Mr Biden’s description of the peace deal as an Israeli proposal, the president’s speech – his most pointed call to date for the war to end – appeared to be designed to pressure the Israeli government into coming to the table, as well as Hamas.
On Sunday, the White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, said in an interview with ABC News: “We have every expectation that if Hamas agrees to the proposal as was transmitted to them, an Israeli proposal – then Israel would say yes.”
In his remarks on Friday, Mr Biden anticipated right-wing opposition to a deal, saying: “I’ve urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal despite whatever pressure comes … Think of what will happen if this moment is lost.
“Lose this moment, [and continue] an indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of total victory will only bog down Israel and Gaza and further Israel’s isolation in the world.”
Gershon Baskin, an Israeli peace activist and former negotiator with Hamas, told the Associated Press: “It was a very good speech … It seems that Biden is trying to force it on the Israeli government. He was clearly speaking directly to the Israeli people.”
Friday’s announcement is the third “last-ditch” ceasefire proposal endorsed by the US: in February, a Ramadan ceasefire that Mr Biden said was “very close” did not materialise, and some progress towards a new truce last month was scuppered by the launch of Israel’s invasion of Rafah, the last pocket of Gaza to be spared ground fighting.
There is only one substantial difference between the new plan and previous proposals: the first phrase, which is a six-week ceasefire in which a limited number of Israeli hostages would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, would be indefinitely extendable while negotiators thrash out the next stage.
In phase two, all remaining hostages would be released, Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza, and both parties would commit to a lasting truce. The third phrase is supposed to implement as-yet unspecified plans for Gaza’s future, including administration and reconstruction.
About 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed in Hamas’s assault on October 7th, with a further 250 taken hostage: about 100 were released in a week-long ceasefire in November.
More than 36,000 people have been killed by Israel in the war in Gaza – according to the Palestinian health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths – which has decimated the strip’s infrastructure, displaced 85 per cent of the population from their homes and created a dire humanitarian crisis. Israel’s decision to invade Rafah last month has significantly disrupted aid deliveries, leading relief organisations to again warn of widespread famine.
Mr Biden’s initial full-throated support for Israel’s right to defend itself after the October 7th attack has given way to censure of the suffering and death in Gaza after widespread criticism at home over his position on the war. However, the US remains the Jewish state’s most important ally and principal weapons supplier.
Being seen to broker an end to the conflict in Gaza would be a foreign policy boon for the president, who is facing an uphill battle for re-election in November. – Guardian