Voter turnout in next Friday’s run-off round of Iran’s election could determine whether the country’s next president will be reformist Masoud Pezeshkian or hardliner Saeed Jalili. In the first round, Pezeshkian unexpectedly secured 10.41 million votes (42.4 per cent) and Jalili 9.47 million (38.6 per cent).
Pezeshkian is the sole reformist out of six candidates qualified to stand by the 12-member Guardian Council which vets all nominations and appointments. The rest were conservatives of differing degrees.
Born to an Azeri father and Kurdish mother, Pezeshkian can expect backing from these minority communities as well as reformists. He is a surgeon who served as health minister and is a sitting member of parliament. He has pledged to revive the 2015 deal limiting Iran’s nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief, which could boost the faltering economy.
He would promote reconciliation between the disaffected populace and domineering clerics and cultivate relations with the West. Pezeshkian has the support of reformists Mohammed Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, who eased conservative impositions during their presidencies and promoted reconciliation with the US and Europe despite Washington’s rejection of Tehran’s advances.
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Jalili is the most hardline conservative selected. After losing part of his right leg while a soldier during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), he is considered a “living martyr”. He was nuclear negotiator and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and currently serves in the Expediency Council, which advises supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Jalili has promised to lower inflation, grow the economy, fight corruption and mismanagement and reject ties to the West.
The first-round turnout – the lowest since Iran’s 1979 revolution – was only 24.5 million in an apathetic and boycotting electorate of 61 million. If Pezeshkian can convince Iranians to turnout and vote for him in the coming around, he could win.
If not, Jalili is likely to triumph by gaining most of the 3.38 million votes cast for conservative candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who came third in the first round. The fourth candidate was Shia cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi with only 206,397 votes. Two other conservative candidates dropped out before polling day and urged supporters to back Jalili.
The snap election was called to replace ultraconservative president Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. Turnout was a low 48 per cent in 2021 when the election was engineered to secure victory for Raisi who was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei (85), the ultimate authority.
The supreme leader and Iran’s president are the top figures in the government, which consists of a superstructure of unelected clerical bodies grafted on to an elected executive and legislature. The president has considerable influence. He nominates ministers and chairs the cabinet, heads the national security council, makes economic policy, issues decrees and signs legislation.
Elections form the connection between clerics and populace. Turnout determines the legitimacy of the model, which has been challenged repeatedly over the past 45 years. Fear of diminished power or overthrow has prompted the conservatives to take control of the presidency and parliament and clamp down on dissent.
The clerics were shaken in 2022 when nationwide protests erupted after a young Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, died while under arrest by morality police for allegedly failing to wear her headscarf (hijab) as mandated by law. Unrest morphed into a mass movement which adopted the slogan, “Woman, Life, Freedom” and rejected the hijab and clerical rule.
Iranian human rights groups reported 550 were killed and 12,500 arrested during the security crackdown. This angered educated young Iranians who shunned both the March parliamentary poll, which had 41 per cent turnout, as well as the first round of the presidential poll.
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