Middle EastAnalysis

Can Israel go beyond show of strength to achieve strategic success?

Assassinations in Tehran and Beirut may provoke Iran and the Lebanese Shia militia to respond forcefully

Ismail Haniyeh just hours before he was assassinated. Senior Hizbullah commander Fuad Shukr was also assassinated in a separate act. How Iran and the Lebanese Shia militia respond could plunge the entire region into all-out war. Photograph: Arash Khamooshi/New York Times
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Wed Jul 31 2024 - 18:18

Israel on Wednesday closed off airspace in the north of the country as it braced for retaliation from Iran and Hizbullah following two dramatic assassinations, hours apart, in Arab capitals.

The strike on Tuesday night in Beirut killed senior Hizbullah commander Fuad Shukr. The head of the Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran where he had travelled to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the new Iranian president.

[ Who was the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh? ]

Iran and the powerful Lebanese Shia militia are facing the same dilemma that confronted Israel after the weekend Hizbullah rocket strike which killed 12 Druze children playing football in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams: how to respond forcefully without plunging the entire region into an all-out war.

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran was obliged to avenge the death of Haniyeh because the assassination took place on Iranian soil, adding that Israel had paved the way for a strong punitive strike.

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When 11 Israeli athletes were killed at the 1972 Munich Olympics, then-prime minister Golda Meir ordered the Mossad intelligence agency to hunt down the Black September gunmen and leaders responsible. The settling of accounts took a decade.

[ Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of killing of Hamas political leader ]

Israel has vowed a similar mission to avenge the Hamas attack of October 7th. All Hamas leaders and militants who took part are legitimate targets as far as Israel is concerned, wherever they are located. Haniyeh was the fourth member of Hamas’ top-six leadership to have been assassinated since October 7th.

The Hamas attack on October 7th shattered the deterrent effect of Israel’s military and intelligence. The process of restoring that effect is ongoing. Thursday will mark day 300 of the Gaza war and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have succeeded in destroying nearly all of the Hamas battalions across the coastal enclave, although guerrilla-style attacks by militants continue.

The two assassinations in 24 hours have also shown that Israeli intelligence still has strong capabilities.

[ Assassinations by Israel of Hamas and Hizbullah leaders leaves Middle East shocked and unsettled ]

“As we are in the middle of the Olympic Games, we can say that Israel has just won two gold medals in the 100m,” said retired Maj Gen Amos Yadlin, the former head of IDF military intelligence. “But this is a very long marathon.”

For most Israelis, the two attacks are part of a necessary process of restoring Israel’s deterrence and self-confidence, and provide a boost for a demoralised public.

But can Israel pivot these tactical achievements into a strategic success to end the fighting, bring the hostages home from Gaza and allow the displaced residents to return to their homes? This requires a wise leadership that thinks in strategic terms beyond meaningless expressions of “total victory”.