The prospects for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal remain in the balance following the assassinations this week of leading Hizbullah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau, in Tehran. Much may depend on the intensity and time frame of the expected military response from Tehran, Hizbullah and Iran’s other regional proxies.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, when he launched the October 7th attack on southern Israel, hoped to spark a regional war that would deal a lethal blow to Israel. With Israel bracing for the retaliation from its regional enemies, the Middle East is the closest it has been to the fulfilment of Sinwar’s ambition. Therefore, he will likely be in no rush to strike a ceasefire deal.
On the other hand, the string of killings of senior Hamas figures and Thursday’s confirmation by Israel of the death of Mohammed Dief, the group’s military commander, following an earlier Israeli strike in Gaza, leaves Sinwar more isolated than ever. He understands that he is probably next in line for an attack and his only realistic chance of saving himself and what remains of the Hamas leadership is a hostage deal.
The Israeli army hopes the assassinations in Beirut and in Tehran will be used by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu as leverage to strike a deal with Hamas which will also either enable a ceasefire on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon or free up troops and resources for a military operation to push Hizbullah from the border.
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And time is pressing. The hostages have already spent more than 300 days in Hamas tunnels and every passing day increases the chances of more of them losing their lives.
[ Michael Jansen: Fears mount that counterstrikes may spark all-out warOpens in new window ]
But it is still not clear that Netanyahu really wants a deal. The Haniyeh assassination was carried out at the most critical moments of the negotiations for a hostage deal that would wrap up the war in Gaza.
Two far-right parties in Netanyahu’s coalition have vowed to quit the government if an agreement is reached to end the war and free hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners, many of whom are linked with attacks in which Israeli civilians were killed.
Not only Hamas but senior Israeli figures close to the negotiations have accused Netanyahu of raising new obstacles over recent weeks (a claim he denies) in an effort to thwart progress towards concluding a deal.
There is no indication that Netanyahu intends to present the latest assassinations, combined with the attack on Yemen’s Hodeidah port and military achievements in the Gaza fighting, as the “victory picture” that would enable him to climb down from some of his demands, with broad public support, and clinch a ceasefire deal.
Some analysts say that even though the Haniyeh killing is a blow to Hamas morale, it is not expected to significantly impact the negotiations. Hamas will be able to continue talks for a deal without him.
Haniyeh was described as the chief negotiator, but it was he who called the shots and always had the final word.
Haniyeh has been portrayed as a relatively moderate figure relative to others in Hamas, in relation to the ceasefire negotiations, but Israeli intelligence officials have been quoted as saying he was not helpful in advancing the negotiations but rather caused Hamas to toughen its line at times. In their opinion, his removal may actually cause Hamas to be more flexible in its willingness to reach a deal.
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