Middle East

Israel seeks to use gains against Hizbullah to secure hostage deal in potential Lebanon ceasefire

Israel-US talks produce ideas about what Israeli exit strategy from Lebanon might look like

Destroyed buildings following an Israeli military strike on a commercial market in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon. Photograph: EPA/Stringer
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Mon Oct 14 2024 - 06:00

International pressure is mounting for a ceasefire in Lebanon but Israel wants any agreement to also bring about the release of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, in a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, “reinforced the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway as soon as feasible”, according to the Pentagon statement released on Sunday.

France simultaneously exerted pressure on Lebanon to curb Hizbullah.

“A ceasefire must be implemented in Lebanon immediately,” French president Emmanuel Macron said over the weekend, during a conversation with Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, adding that Hizbullah strikes must “immediately stop”.

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Israel spent the last year in an unsuccessful attempt to reach a truce on its northern border by rejecting the linkage made by Hizbullah between the Lebanese and Gaza theatres of war. Now the tables appear to have turned and Israel hopes to capitalise on its achievements on the northern front against Hizbullah to force Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to agree to a hostage deal.

Mossad director David Barnea, one of the Israeli negotiators to the Gaza ceasefire talks, hopes to break the deadlock by making it clear to both Iran and Hizbullah that a ceasefire will only become possible if a hostage deal is reached. He hopes the ongoing military pressure on both Iran and Hizbullah will encourage them to force the besieged Hamas leader Sinwar into agreeing to a deal that would free the hostages.

At the very least, Barnea’s goal is to secure an agreement about the hostage deal that had previously been on the table, so as to facilitate the release of all 101 hostages who have been held captive in the Gaza Strip for more than a year.

However, there are no indications that Sinwar is willing to consider such an “all-in” deal at this juncture. Despite the renewed Israeli offensive in the northern Gaza Strip, centred on Jabaliya, north of Gaza city, he sees Israel is bogged down in a multi-front war, which is exactly what he aimed to achieve by his brazen October 7th attack on southern Israel.

In any event, Israel intends to continue its military operation in southern Lebanon until all of the remaining Hizbullah fighters have been pushed north of the Litani river. This is expected to take a few more weeks and only then would Israel be willing to engage in talks on an overall ceasefire deal. On Sunday, the Israeli military ordered residents of 21 more Lebanese villages to evacuate to areas north of the Awali river which flows through southern Lebanon.

Talks between Israel and the United States have begun to produce ideas about what an exit strategy from the war in Lebanon might look like after the ground operation is completed.

However, Israeli security agency Shin Bet director Ronen Bar, speaking during a visit to south Lebanon, said Israel would retain military control over parts of Gaza and southern Lebanon until a diplomatic arrangement was reached.

Overshadowing the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza looms the expected Israeli response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack earlier this month, which Gallant has promised will be “lethal, precise and, above all, surprising”.

US officials told NBC on Sunday Israel is expected to concentrate on military and energy infrastructure targets. Iran has “no red lines” when it comes to defending its people and interests, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday, after warnings from Tehran that there would be a response to any Israeli attack.