Middle EastAnalysis

Israeli counterattack on Iran expected this weekend or soon afterwards

Many Israelis have already prepared their bomb shelters and safe rooms, stocking up on water, food and setting up electronic devices

Israelis take cover after an alert of incoming missiles fired from Iran, near Kfar Saba, Israel. Photograph: Avishag Shaar-Yashuv/The New York Times
Israelis take cover after an alert of incoming missiles fired from Iran, near Kfar Saba, Israel. Photograph: Avishag Shaar-Yashuv/The New York Times
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Wed Oct 23 2024 - 14:24

“Will it be tonight?” is the question Israelis have been asking incessantly since October 1st, when Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at their country. The question refers to Israel’s response, which, its leaders have promised, is just a question of time.

Defence minister Yoav Gallant vowed that the attack on Iran “will be precise and surprising. The Iranians won’t know what hit them.” Iran’s leaders have vowed to respond to any Israeli strike.

The conversations at workplaces and family gatherings focus on speculation surrounding the optimal date Israel will choose for the attack. According to the latest conventional wisdom, it will occur only after US secretary of state Antony Blinken has left the region so as not to embarrass the senior American diplomat during talks in Arab capitals.

At the same time, Israel cannot wait much longer because then the attack, which may plunge the entire region into a dangerous escalation and drag in US forces, will be too close to the November 5th US election. In other words, the attack can be expected this weekend or soon afterwards. This would conveniently time the attack after the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah, the last of a series of Jewish holidays that began three weeks ago with Rosh Hashana, the Jewish new year. Conventional wisdom is that the government preferred not to attack over the holiday period, and sending millions of Israelis into bomb shelters instead of celebrating.

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In any event, fearing an Iranian counterattack, many Israelis have already prepared their bomb shelters and safe rooms, stocking up on water, food and setting up electronic devices.

The attack will be closely co-ordinated with the US, and president Joe Biden says he knows when it will take place. Washington has deployed its anti-ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defence battery system to Israel, along with about 100 American troops. The White House has made it clear it doesn’t want Israel to target either nuclear or oil sites, fearing a regional escalation or a sharp rise in petrol prices just before the election.

When Biden spoke to Binyamin Netanyahu earlier this month, the Israeli prime minister said he was planning to target military infrastructure in Iran, according to a US official. This may include Revolutionary Guards’ targets, such as its main headquarters in Tehran, air force bases, air defence systems and command, and control and communication centres. A cyberattack is also a possibility, temporarily paralysing civil infrastructure such as petrol stations, rail traffic, ports, power stations and airports. Israeli cyberattacks against Iran in recent years briefly shut down petrol stations, train stations and shipping traffic to Bandar Abbas port.

Iran fears that Israel may also target the country’s political and clerical leaders. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was taken to a secure location after receiving news of Israel’s assassination of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Iran’s regional proxies around the Middle East, including Shia militias stationed in Iraq and Syria, could also be a potential target for Israel.

Two US intelligence documents leaked last weekend gave an insight into aspects of the attack Israel is planning. The documents, based on deciphering aerial or satellite images, revealed that US intelligence believes Israel will use two models of air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) and guided bombs in the strikes. The Americans identified a dozen ALBMs at the Hatzerim air force base, where Israel tried to conceal its actions by spreading camouflage canvases over the area. At least 56 missiles were taken out of storage, according to the leaked documents.