Indications are growing that Israel is on its way to establishing a military administration in the Gaza Strip.
After 13 months of fighting Hamas no longer poses a significant military threat to the Israeli forces, although guerrilla-style attacks continue. Israel says 101 hostages, not all of them alive, remain in captivity, but ceasefire negotiations are deadlocked.
The Israeli army controls a large corridor reaching to the Mediterranean Sea that divides the coastal enclave in two, as well a buffer zone inside Gaza along the entire length of the border with Israel, including the Philidelphi corridor at the southern tip bordering Egypt.
Recent changes on the ground indicate that the Israeli forces are readying for a long stay. Troops have built new military bases, widened roads, erected cellular antennas and put in place water, sewage and electricity networks.
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The far-right members of prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition, along with many from his own Likud party, advocate a military administration as the first step towards the building of Jewish settlements in Gaza.
Netanyahu says he opposes this but has failed to present a “day after” postwar plan, merely insisting, repeatedly, that Hamas must never be allowed to again control of civilian affairs in Gaza.
Israel’s security cabinet will convene on Thursday night to consider the option of delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza by means of a private US contractor, under Israeli supervision. Such a move is seen as essential to removing Hamas’s control over the civilian population as much of the aid currently entering Gaza is seized by Hamas or local gangs. Controlling aid distribution represents the first vital step towards establishing a military administration.
Two recent developments have removed obstacles to such a scenario.
The first was the replacement by Netanyahu of defence minister Yoav Gallant with Yisrael Katz. Gallant opposed a military administration, arguing instead for a role for President Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority. The second development was Donald Trump’s election victory in the US, as the outgoing Biden administration is firmly opposed to an Israeli military administration.
Beyond the military and (very expensive) economic implications of establishing a military administration, such a development would also have far-reaching legal implications in terms of Israeli control over more than two million Palestinians.
Assuming civilian control over Gaza would oblige Israel to meet the local population’s needs, including humanitarian aid, water, electricity, communications, sanitation and education. Such a move could also have an impact on the ongoing international legal proceedings against Israel at The Hague.
Ironically, it may be Trump who thwarts plans for an Israeli military administration. As someone who wants the Gaza war to end as soon as possible, he may not view favourably Israeli moves to prolong their presence in the enclave.
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