Hamas’s refusal to accept Israel’s terms for continuation of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire has, on the surface of it, prompted Israel to renew the war to force Hamas to capitulate.
In a statement, Hamas said Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s decision to resume the war is a “decision to sacrifice” the lives of the Israeli hostages who are being held in Gaza. With its military wing no match for Israel’s armed forces, a ceasefire is Hamas' only option. It has no leverage other than the remaining 59 Israeli hostages, 35 of whom are believed to be dead.
During the first phase of the ceasefire, which began on January 19th and was supposed to last 42 days, the situation in Gaza improved. Food and medicine flowed into Gaza, Israeli troops pulled back from populated areas, and displaced Palestinians returned to their neighbourhoods. Hamas released 33 Israeli hostages and Israel freed 1,900 Palestinian prisoners.
But since that ceasefire ended two weeks ago, Israel and Hamas have disagreed over how to move forward.
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Hamas has insisted on progressing to the second phase of the ceasefire, the objective of which is the release of 59 hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and an end the war.
With Washington’s backing, Israel has instead demanded extension of phase one with the option of an Israeli resumption of the war.
Israel’s stated objective is to eliminate Hamas militarily and politically. For Hamas, extension of phase one is a death sentence.
Hamas has refused to budge since March 2nd, when Israel halted the flow of aid into Gaza. Last week Israel stepped up pressure on Hamas by switching off the supply of electricity operating Gaza’s desalination plants which provide the strip’s 2.3 million Palestinians with limited drinking water. This compelled them to rely solely on contaminated wells. Due to Israel’s campaign, Gazans face warfare, hunger and thirst during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
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Hamas also insists on advancing to the third stage, which envisages the return of all hostages’ bodies and the rebuilding of Gaza. Hamas is prepared to hand over the running of Gaza to Palestinian technocrats.
Hamas has complained that when the ceasefire was agreed in mid-January, Israel refused to commit in writing to halt the war after phase one.
Hamas has said it agreed to the three-phase plan after receiving verbal guarantees from Egyptian, Qatari and US mediators. A Hamas official has told the French news agency that it is “working with mediators to curb the aggression”. The Times of Israel reported on Tuesday: “Hamas has not responded [militarily] to the Israeli strikes.”
Hamas has been under growing pressure from Gazans to end the war, restore aid and launch reconstruction rather than step down.
A January poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found Hamas’s approval rating had fallen from 42 per cent in December 2023 to 21 per cent in January 2025. Nevertheless, researchers at King’s College, London, reported in the Guardian that if elections were held, many Palestinians would vote for Hamas as the West Bank-based Fatah is seen as “weak and illegitimate”.
