Israelis vote on Tuesday in the first election since the October 7th, 2023 Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel and the ensuing three years of war that have changed the face of the Middle East.
Why it matters
Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader, who has been in power for 19 of the last 30 years, is fighting for his political survival. His outgoing government, made up entirely of right-wing and religious parties, has done much to undermine Israel’s liberal democratic foundations, attacked the powers of the independent judiciary and emboldened messianic Jewish extremists who seek to annex the West Bank and Gaza and expel Palestinian residents. The ultra-Orthodox have succeeded in thwarting attempts to draft Haredi students into the army and wish to extend religious influence over many areas of life.
Israel is at a critical crossroad. Another term for the outgoing coalition is likely to exacerbate the current trends, turning Israel into a pariah state and unleashing a wave of international sanctions.
When will the outcome of the election be known?
The main TV stations will publish exit polls at 8pm Tuesday (Irish time), when the polls close. The final results should be known by Thursday at noon.
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How accurate are the exit polls?
Usually quite reliable but in a close race small margins can make all the difference. After the May 1996 election Israelis went to bed thinking that Shimon Peres would be the next prime minister, based on the exit polls, only to wake up with Netanyahu as prime minister. Small margins can be critical for parties that are hovering close to the 3.25 per cent threshold, which is required to win a minimum four seats in the 120-seat Knesset; there are two such parties in this election.
What do the latest polls show?
The last day allowed for polling was on Friday. In Israel it’s all about the blocs: the right-wing/religious Netanyahu bloc and the anti-Netanyahu, or change bloc (made up of parties from the centre, left and right). Friday’s four polls showed neither bloc coming close to securing an overall majority of 61 seats. The Netanyahu bloc has between 48 and 54 seats against 52-56 for the change bloc. The two Arab parties are projected to win about 14 seats but right-wing parties in the change bloc say they will not sit in a government that relies on the support of Arab parties. Yashar, led by centrist former IDF top general Gadi Eisenkot, was the leading party in all the polls, a few seats ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud.
So, what will happen?
It’s complicated.
President Yitzhak Herzog will meetall the parties elected to the new Knesset and hear their recommendations, before tasking a party leader with forming a coalition.
Some kind of unity government is possible, based primarily on Yashar and Likud, but Eisenkot has rejected this option, even if it includes a rotating premiership. He prefers to form a minority coalition with the outside backing of the Arab parties. Such a government could, theoretically, pass legislation that would be devastating for Netanyahu, such as establish a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th massacre, barring an indicted MP from forming a government (Netanyahu is on trial for corruption) or pass a law that would set retroactive term limits on a prime minister’s tenure to eight years, blocking another term for Netanyahu. But, for any of this to happen, the right-wing change bloc parties will have to agree to a deal with the Arab parties.
The final option is another election in the spring, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister.
