James Cleverly has carved open the race to be the next leader of the British Conservative Party by taking the lead in a vote of MPs on Tuesday. He now appears set to ease into the final pair of contenders who will go to a final vote of party members, with Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick battling it out to join him.
Tom Tugendhat, the former national security minister, was eliminated after finishing last in Tuesday’s vote with the backing of 20 MPs. His fellow centrist contender Mr Cleverly, however, charged to the front of the race with 39 backers, up from 21 in the previous elimination vote last month.
Ms Badenoch received 30 votes in Tuesday’s vote, just behind her fellow right-wing contender Mr Jenrick, who received 31, down two from the last vote. His slippage to finish so far behind Mr Cleverly in the running among MPs was a significant surprise around Westminster on Tuesday; Mr Jenrick had been the lead contender going into last week’s Tory party conference in Birmingham.
The final vote of MPs will take place on Wednesday afternoon, when Mr Tugendhat’s 20 backers will have to settle on another contender.
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Candidates need to secure the backing of at least 40 of the Tory party’s 121 MPs to be sure of making it into the final pairing. Needing just one more, Mr Cleverly’s place in the run-off seems secure when Mr Tugendhat’s votes are reallocated.
The final 24 hours before the next MP vote appeared certain to be a frenzy of last-minute lobbying by Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick, both of whom remain popular with the party membership who will make the final decision. Either way it appears that party members will have a clear ideological choice in the deciding vote between a more centrist candidate in Mr Cleverly and a right-leaning contender in Ms Badenoch or Mr Jenrick.
Mr Jenrick’s camp will have been most disappointed by his showing on Tuesday. While Mr Cleverly was seen as having put in the best performance at the four-day conference-turned-leadership beauty parade in Birmingham, Mr Jenrick’s place in the final pairing had still been assumed to be safe.
Mr Jenrick has focused his campaign to replace Rishi Sunak as leader on a promise to pull Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if he becomes prime minister. Right-wing Tories blame the ECHR for complicating the deportations of illegal immigrants that the party believes voters covet.
Mr Cleverly, meanwhile, had adopted a more moderate stance and made a more humble, optimistic pitch at the conference. The party’s members, however, are more right leaning than the MPs, meaning Ms Badenoch or Mr Jenrick would still be strong contenders if they make it to the final two.
The final pairing is expected be announced at about 3.30pm on Wednesday.
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