Fear and loathing, in the blue corner, in the red corner, across the dark fields of the Republic. One thing was clear after Thursday night’s debate on a swampy evening in Atlanta. Those two old men despise each other. And one is happier than the other today.
Perception is everything, and in the immediate aftermath, the consensus was that President Joe Biden’s faltering performance spread an immediate sense of alarm through the Democratic Party. On national television, the worst of those private, seldom-spoken fears began to sharpen into something appalling: maybe he is not up to this.
Afterwards, on CNN, the analysts, including Obama adviser David Axelrod, spoke about who would – or could – go to Joe and Jill Biden and say the time has arrived to step aside.
It was true that Biden’s voice was raspy and indistinct in the beginning, that he was at times unable to fill his two minutes’ allotted speaking time and prone to vacant stares. It was also true he was energised and sharp in places.
But overall, he was a pale shadow of the candidate who debated in 2020: in fact, he was a world removed from the fiery figure who had the Democratic side of the House cheering and howling “four more years” after the state of the union address in March.
Donald Trump was Donald Trump: fast-talking, belligerent, scattering claims that were later debunked by the fact-checkers as exaggerations or outright lies. But he stayed on message. He didn’t go too personal. That was enough.
No sooner had the debate ended than the CNN floor in the media auditorium adjacent to the closed-off debating space was filled with the most prominent figures in the court of Donald Trump: would-be vice presidential candidates Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and Elise Stanfanik, all of whom pressed the argument this was irrefutable proof that Joe Biden was past it.
The mood was jubilant and even bloodthirsty and, not for the first time, Matt Gaetz, the controversial Florida Republican, was quick to strike.
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“Joe Biden could not defend his border record; he could not defend his economic record, and he showed himself to be the incompetent president that he is. I got text messages from friends of mine in the House, who are Democrats, concerned that they might lose 20 or 30 seats in the House as a consequence of Joe Biden’s performance.”
He told those of us gathered around him this with a cold smile.
“What you are going to see in the coming days is a growing chorus of people calling on Joe Biden to reconsider his candidacy. But the Democrats are stuck with him. The time for that is past. They are arrivin’ with Biden.”
This, of course, was predictable spin. But the problem for the Democrats is that the Republican triumphalism mirrored their private fears and late-night phone and text conservations. Over 90 minutes, all the old doubts and fears about the wisdom of having an 81-year-old man returning for another four years was inescapable. The numbers were in. Four years ago, the polls had Biden winning this debate by 32 points. On Thursday night, Trump was deemed the victor by 34 points.
“I thought president Trump did a good job,” Republican grandee Lindsey Graham shrugged afterwards. “I thought President Biden, quite frankly, seemed” – and he had the poise to lower his chin and shake his head as though in sorrow – “I thought Trump was strong and coherent, whether you agreed with him or not. And I thought Biden was weak and confused.”
For a long time, the Republicans had the floor to themselves, and then came the extraordinary sight of Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, surrounded by hundreds of reporters and cameras as he tried to defend the president. It was impossible to hear what he was saying.
The omens were grim for the Biden camp from the beginning, when he emerged on stage looking drawn and uncertain, and his opening remarks were muffled and indistinct. This was the first impression for watching Americans.
A thin white line divided presidents #45 and #46 on the television screen for a show that promised a return to the lost days of live television as a collective force. There was no handshake, nothing less than hostility.
When Biden and Trump debated four years ago, the result was such a dismal and dismaying low that the anchor that evening, Wolf Blitzer, said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if this was the last debate between the two. As Dana Bash, who had the dubious honour of co-hosting with Jake Tapper the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump in 2020 memorably put it then: “That was a sh*tshow.”
But flash forward four years defined by many Americans as the lost years of the pandemic and the shocking hike in prices and here they are again: the same duo sparring, a little older – which is pretty old.
The rules of engagement were explained beforehand. The sides of the stage the candidates stood on was decided by coin toss. They could speak for two minutes each to respond to the questions. They would have a minute each for responses and rebuttals, and microphones would be silenced to avoid interruptions. It felt like the rules devised by a kindergarten teacher out of patience: all that was missing was a naughty corner.
For a while, the format, with both men locked in a room with just the hosts and secret service, adjacent to the main auditorium where the media were housed, worked. It kept order. The candidates got to speak. The predictions of the television analysts beforehand were that this was an exercise in optics: that people wanted to see that the old guys weren’t past it – “who are these men? what have they become?” as political analyst Van Jones put it. And that was true.
When they appeared, millions wondered if Joe wasn’t walking that bit stiffly, if Donald’s tie was askew. And Biden’s voice was muffled in the opening. And Trump gave his usual array of sarcastic grins and grimaces.
But there was human energy involved. The core of the candidates’ message has been heard before on the campaign trail, but this was different. They were speaking to each other. Or at each other. And you could see it: energising them, vexing them, making their faces flush. At times, the mutual hatred made for vivid television.
“The only person on the stage that is a convicted felon is the man I’m looking at right now,” was Biden’s killer line over the 90 minutes.
“He could be a convicted felon as soon as he is out of office,” shot back Trump.
And Trump’s retort, in the early exchanges, on the chaotic exit from Afghanistan – “It was the most embarrassing day in the history of our country’s life” – clearly angered Biden.
The hosts went through with the sternness of passport-control officers, shooting questions on the economy, abortion, immigration and border security, January 6th. The week of intense preparation showed: both Trump and Biden stuck to their message and their mutual loathing generated flashes of convincing exchange.
On abortion, Biden promised that if he is returned to the White House, he will restore Roe v Wade. “So, he is willing as they say to rip the baby out of the womb in the ninth month and kill the baby,” Trump said, which Biden forcefully and convincingly refuted.
Halfway through, the exchanges became more personal. At one stage, Biden did corner his opponent into saying: “I did not have sex with a porn star.”
But the problem with the format became glaring as the evening wore on. It meant that Donald Trump could repeat claims that have repeatedly been shown to be exaggerations or outright untruths unchecked. There was no fact-checking, and the moment was instant. It was live television. What was heard by the voters stayed heard.
And that stilted format took a heavy toll on Biden. His rival can talk forever and doesn’t worry about tethering himself to facts. And even the most loyal Biden supporter cannot deny that Trump is a more fluent and compelling performer, with a cruel wit and offbeat delivery.
Twice, the moderators had to tell Biden he had more time left to speak. But he had nothing more to say. Over the 90 minutes, the substance of the argument dwindled and the full implications of returning Joe Biden to the White House began to loom in the foreground. It was a night when Donald Trump consolidated his control and popularity within the Republican Party: when even those who might privately dislike what he stands for could see him bulldozing a path through the summer against a weakening foe and reimagining the White House as a Maga mansion.
In the cold light of day, the substance of the debate will be analysed and perhaps even revised. But America’s livingrooms will be empty. The time to shine was on Thursday night, with the voters of America gathered around the TV. And Joe Biden, the great survivor of the Democratic Party, had one of his worst nights in politics. A summer crisis looms.
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