Donald Trump’s re-election would not shorten the war in Ukraine and would probably lead to a longer and bloodier conflict, according to Alexander Vindman, who served as a national security adviser to the former president.
Vindman was the leading Ukraine expert on the US National Security Council during the Trump presidency. He came to prominence when testifying before Congress in proceedings that led to the first impeachment of Trump in 2019.
The former US Army lieutenant colonel is visiting Ireland to address the Institute of International and European Affairs on Tuesday on the topic of the Russia-Ukraine war, its causes, conduct and geopolitical context.
Trump has signalled that should he win the presidency in November he would bring the war to a swift end, before even taking office, by promising to cease the flow of US military aid to Ukraine.
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This would be a “headwind” for peace, said Vindman, who was born in Ukraine before moving to the United States as a child with his family.
Cutting off US military would not end the war, which for the Ukrainian people is an “existential one”, he told The Irish Times in an interview. Instead, it would turn the conflict into a “grind”. Russia would have a resource advantage, but Ukraine would continue to fight.
Ukraine’s neighbours, fearing an emboldened Russia would turn on them next, might also get involved by putting their troops on the ground, he said.
“You could very well see a scenario in which they put their own troops on the ground, not as part of Nato but through bilateral agreements, so they can help Ukraine win there rather than trying to fight on their own territory.”
Vindman said that, like most conflicts, the war would end at the negotiating table. However, before that, Ukraine must have some battlefield successes. The re-election of a Democrat administration in Washington would help bring Russian president Vladimir Putin to the negotiating by placing “huge pressure” on his regime.
Combined, these factors could led to “robust” peace negotiations in the latter half of 2025, Vindman said.
Until then, Ukraine must hold out against Russian attacks and build up its own forces to launch a major attack next summer, he said.
Ukraine must make some “tough choices” in this regard, including lowering its conscription age from 25 to 18. It must also mobilise more of its industry towards the war effort and harmonise it with western countries.
Peace negotiations could see the borders going back to the pre-2022 status quo and with Ukraine even regaining control of parts of the Donbas region seized by Russia, he said. However, the return of Crimea, which is firmly under Russian control, would probably not be on the table. “In peace negotiations, nobody gets everything they want.”
Vindman said Trump’s foreign policy would be “isolationist” andthe selection of Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate underlined this.
There was fear in many western governments that Trump would not honour the US’s common defence commitments under Article 5 of the Nato treaty or that he would pull out of the defence alliance entirely.
“We might not withdraw outright,” Vindman, said. “But the powers of the president when it comes to foreign policy are vast. We might abstain from a crisis if not outright withdraw.”
If the US did withdraw from Nato, “the whole world would be in much tougher predicament”, he said.
It would give Putin opportunities to test the resolve of the remaining members of the alliance, he said. “And I think there is a high likelihood that he would try.”
Another Trump presidency would also leave Ireland at more risk, despite it not being in Nato, said Vindman. “I think the Russia would look to exploit any vulnerabilities,” he said, pointing to recent activity by the Russian navy in Irish-controlled waters off the west coast.
Russia had a long history of engaging in “active measures” in Ireland, including supporting various armed groups in Northern Ireland. It was eager to exploit any wedge issue to increase disharmony in the country, he said. “And I’d say they’re involved here now in roiling some of the conversations around Israel.”
In the US, Vindman said Trump’s chances in November were helped by his total control over “a minority of the population” and a general sense of voter apathy.
“The Maga constituency will be there for Trump, no matter what,” he said. “The question of who wins the next election will be about who can reach the portion of the disaffected population that is in play.
“This is Middle America. These are the people that have been left behind in spite of the US enjoying quite a bit of prosperity and significant economic growth.”
Vice-president Kamala Harris can beat Trump if “she pivots towards the centre and figures out how to help the middle class and the working class,” he said.
Vindman’s brother Eugene, who also served on the National Security Council during the Trump-Ukraine scandal, is running for a seat in the House of Representatives as a Democrat.
Vindman said he had no plans to run himself, as he believed he could be more effective in rallying support for Ukraine outside Congress.
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