Sceptics say the last six months of market misery are only the beginning, that meagre long-term returns await investors spoiled by a decade of cheap money.
That’s not true, says Bespoke Investment: investors haven’t been spoiled at all. The S&P 500 has enjoyed double-digit annualised returns over the last two, five- and 10-year periods. That’s good, but it’s not remarkable.
In all three time periods, says Bespoke, returns are between the 50th and 60th percentile — that is, better than 50-60 per cent of prior years. Over 20 years, annualised returns have been almost two percentage points below average, falling into the 35th percentile.
Of course, bears might say stocks still look overvalued relative to history, indicating future returns will be disappointing. Perhaps, but that’s a different argument.
The idea investors have been spoiled is, says Bespoke, the “overstatement of the year”.
