Stocktake: Bearish fund managers don’t trust market rally

Good news for investors – fund managers don’t trust the recent rally and remain extremely cautious.

At mid-June’s market bottom, Bank of America’s (BofA) monthly fund manager survey confirmed investor sentiment was “dire”, with equity allocations plunging to levels even lower than that seen at market bottoms in 2002, 2011, 2012 and 2016. July’s survey revealed a similarly panicked picture, BofA saying fund managers were in “full capitulation” mode.

The latest survey shows the mood is no longer “apocalyptically bearish”, says BofA, but sentiment remains bearish. Cash levels have fallen slightly to 5.7 per cent, but remain well above historical norms.

Indeed, the percentage of fund managers overweight cash is almost two standard deviations above its long-term average. An abnormally large percentage of investors continue to take lower-than-normal risk levels. Equity allocations have increased, but remain more than two standard deviations below their long-term average.

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Overall, BofA’s Bull and Bear Indicator remains at a “max bearish” level of 0.

BofA strategists have themselves been quite bearish for most of 2022 and that continues to be the case, saying they remain “patient bears”. Nevertheless, sentiment remains “too bearish” for an immediate reversal of the recent advance, suggesting the fierce rally over the last two months may have further room to run.