Fund managers may be bearish, but the duration of the current advance suggests this is not a mere bear market rally.

It has been more than six months since the S&P 500′s October low, notes Bespoke Investment. It found 13 previous occasions where stocks made a big low after a 20 per cent drop and then didn’t make a new low in the next six months. Only twice did stocks subsequently hit new lows. Indeed, stocks were higher six and 12 months later on all but one occasion, enjoying median gains of 12 and 17.3 per cent, respectively.

Still, while there’s nothing bearish about the market action since October, one could argue it’s not especially bullish either. A separate Bespoke note points out that while there was a strong one-month rally off the October lows, the last five months have been “like watching paint dry”, with the S&P 500 barely higher today than at the end of November.

Stocks have been stuck in a trading range for months, with the S&P 500 oscillating between 3,800 and 4,200. The index is currently near the top of that range – if it does break to the upside, it would suggest stocks are sticking to a historically bullish script.