Sinn Féin is focusing hard on managing its votes in Mid-Ulster because the five-seater constituencies which have replaced the previous six-seaters will make it harder for the party to keep three seats.
In the last Assembly election the result was Sinn Féin three, SDLP one, DUP one and UUP one.
As a result of the reduction in the number of seats, the quota has risen from 14.3 per cent of the poll to 16.7. In last May’s election there were 2.1 unionist quotas and 3.7 nationalist quotas, which would tend to indicate one of the nationalist parties losing out this time.
Yet the impact of the “cash for ash” scandal and other controversies at Stormont, coupled with a possible reduced turnout, makes it difficult to call.
Sinn Féin is running its new Northern Ireland leader Michelle O’Neill along with Linda Dillon and Ian Milne. O’Neill’s recent appointment and popularity among republicans old and young could boost turnout.
The party has a reputation for its excellent vote-management and transferring between candidates, but it will have to get the balancing act just right to see three candidates across the line.
The SDLP talks about of the “huge personal vote” of its candidate Patsy McGlone and his “strong constituency work” since 1998. “We have no concerns about Patsy at all,” a spokesman said.
Looking for unionist votes are the DUP, the UUP, plus the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), which would need a seismic shift away from the mainstream unionist parties to get its candidate Hannah Loughrin elected.
The TUV urges its candidates to transfer to pro-union candidates and, while it is not advising a preference, it is hostile to the DUP and last time most of its transfers in Mid-Ulster went to the UUP.
The DUP is running Keith Buchanan again, and he looks safe as the party’s vote will not be divided between two candidates as it was last year.
A UUP spokesman said he was “pretty confident” Sandra Overend would be elected. He said she was “sensing a frustration among voters” with the “cash for ash” scandal and the collapse of the political institutions.
The Alliance Party, the Green Party and the Workers’ Party are also running candidates.
Prediction
Mid-Ulster’s Westminster MP is Sinn Féin’s Francie Molloy and it is the dominant political party in the constituency. However, it will need to get its vote-management spot on to get three candidates elected in this five-seater. The UUP will need to ensure its voters come out to support Sandra Overend, and that it gets transfers from other parties. The result could be two seats for Sinn Féin and one each for the SDLP, DUP and UUP.
Candidates
Keith Buchanan (DUP), Sandra Overend (UUP), Patsy McGlone (SDLP), Linda Dillon, Ian Milne, Michelle O’Neill (SF), Hugh Scullion (WP), Hannah Loughrin (TUV), Fay Watson (Alliance), Stefan Taylor (Green), Hugh McCloy (Ind)
