The abstention by China on the UN Security Council vote condemning Russia's Ukraine invasion sent out a half-hearted message that Beijing does not feel entirely comfortable at the actions of its ally.
But Chinese ambivalence has certainly not been reflected in any outright repudiation of Putin's war, although president Xi Jinping, speaking last week with French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz, appealed for "maximum restraint", urging them to "jointly support peace talks". But he criticised sanctions for exacerbating commodity price rises; the world's second-largest economy imports 70 per cent of its oil and 40 per cent of its gas.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has imposed an awkward diplomatic quandary on China in violating the principle of national sovereignty, ostensibly regarded as sacrosanct. But, with its eye firmly on the incorporation of Taiwan into China, if necessary by force, Beijing is watching Russia's efforts to do likewise in Ukraine with interest. The evidence so far is that the political and economic price would be high.
China is also enthusiastic about a strategic pushback against American power in the wake of its strategic "turn to Asia". "The real goal of the US... is to establish an Indo-Pacific version of Nato, " Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, claimed last Monday, echoing Russian justifications of its war. That opposition to any extension of Nato was reflected in the non-aggression pact signed by Xi and Putin in Beijing in February. Beijing was largely silent in the early days of the invasion, hoping, no doubt, that the operation would be quickly over, but it has hinted at its willingness to facilitate mediation. Western countries are reluctant to accept its good faith.
It is not clear if China will help Russia evade sanctions. The country is far more economically tied to and interdependent on the West than Russia, and would suffer hugely were secondary sanctions applied. China is running huge and rapidly rising trade surpluses with the US and European states and recorded $6.05 trillion in total foreign merchandise trade in 2021. Further trade barriers might start to wean western companies and consumers from their reliance on Chinese factories, which have created tens of millions of jobs in China.
Chinese banks are also all still deeply reliant on the US dollar. Its companies are active around the globe, using the American financial system to pay employees, buy materials and make investments mainly in dollars. Even Russia and China conduct their trade mostly in dollars and euros.
Although China might see geopolitical benefit in a clear-cut Russia victory, that prospect already appears increasingly unlikely. Severing its relationship with the West would not be a price worth paying.